The Second Law of Thermodynamics is a fundamental principle in physics that describes the behavior of macroscopic systems and their tendency to evolve towards states of higher entropy. It states that in an isolated system, the total entropy of that system will either remain constant or increase over time, but it will never decrease.
While the microscopic laws of kinetics in classical physics are time reversible, the Second Law of Thermodynamics is a statistical law that arises from the behavior of large ensembles of particles. It is based on the statistical behavior of a system with a large number of particles, where the probabilities of various arrangements tend to favor states with higher entropy.
The reason scientists do not make a "black swan" error when stating the Second Law of Thermodynamics is that it is derived from statistical mechanics, which is rooted in the mathematical framework of quantum mechanics. Quantum mechanics is a fundamental theory that describes the behavior of particles at the microscopic level, and it provides a more complete and accurate description of the physical world compared to classical physics.
Quantum mechanics introduces the concept of wave functions, which describe the probabilities of different states for a quantum system. When considering large ensembles of particles, the individual quantum states become highly entangled, and the statistical behavior of the system emerges from the distribution of these probabilities.
While individual microscopic processes might be reversible in quantum mechanics, when considering the vast number of particles and their interactions, the statistical behavior of the system overwhelmingly leads to irreversible processes and the increase of entropy in macroscopic systems. This statistical behavior aligns with the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
In summary, scientists do not make the "black swan" error when stating the Second Law of Thermodynamics because it is based on the statistical behavior of large ensembles of particles, which arises from the underlying quantum mechanics. This statistical behavior leads to irreversible processes and the increase of entropy, even though the microscopic laws of kinetics are time reversible at the individual particle level.