The reason a large asteroid, such as the one you mentioned, would be more likely to crash into Jupiter rather than Earth is primarily due to the difference in size and gravitational influence between the two bodies. There are a few key factors to consider:
Jupiter's Gravitational Pull: Jupiter is the largest planet in our solar system and has a significantly higher mass compared to Earth. Its powerful gravitational pull attracts nearby objects, including asteroids, with greater force. This makes it more likely for asteroids to be captured by Jupiter's gravity and pulled into a collision course with the planet.
Distance from Other Celestial Bodies: Jupiter is located much farther away from the asteroid belt compared to Earth. The asteroid belt, situated between Mars and Jupiter, is a region that contains numerous asteroids orbiting the Sun. Although collisions and gravitational interactions can occur within the asteroid belt, the probability of a large asteroid directly hitting Earth is relatively low due to Earth's position within the inner solar system.
Earth's Atmosphere: The Earth has a protective atmosphere that serves as a shield against many smaller asteroids and meteoroids. When these objects enter Earth's atmosphere, they experience friction, heat up, and often disintegrate before reaching the surface. This process helps prevent the majority of smaller objects from impacting the Earth's surface. However, larger asteroids can still cause significant damage if they manage to penetrate the atmosphere.
Target Size: The relative sizes of Earth and Jupiter play a crucial role in determining the likelihood of an asteroid collision. Earth has a much smaller target area compared to Jupiter, which has a much larger surface area. Consequently, the chances of a large asteroid directly colliding with Earth are significantly lower than the likelihood of it hitting Jupiter.
While it is possible for large asteroids to impact Earth, the combination of these factors reduces the probability compared to Jupiter. Additionally, Jupiter's gravitational influence can act as a kind of "cosmic vacuum cleaner," attracting and capturing many objects that would otherwise come closer to Earth.