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Limiting the increase in global temperature is a complex challenge that depends on various factors, including global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the adoption of sustainable practices, technological advancements, and political will. The primary international agreement addressing climate change is the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Meeting the 1.5 or 2-degree Celsius target would require significant and rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a leading scientific body, has emphasized the importance of staying below 1.5 degrees Celsius to minimize the risks associated with climate change. However, current trends and commitments made by countries as of 2023 suggest that the world is not on track to limit warming to either target without substantial additional efforts.
Predicting the exact trajectory of global temperature increase is challenging due to numerous uncertainties and variables. It is possible that without significant action, global temperatures could continue to rise beyond the 1.5 or 2-degree targets. An increase of 3 degrees Celsius would still pose significant risks and have widespread impacts on ecosystems, sea levels, extreme weather events, and human societies.
An increase of 8 degrees Celsius or more would be highly catastrophic, leading to severe consequences such as extensive loss of biodiversity, rising sea levels, intensified heatwaves, droughts, and floods, among other adverse effects. However, such a large temperature increase is considered unlikely in the near future, given the efforts and commitments by many countries to address climate change.
It's important to note that the trajectory of global temperature increase is not predetermined. The actions taken by individuals, communities, businesses, and governments to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to a changing climate can significantly influence the outcome. Transitioning to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, promoting energy efficiency, protecting ecosystems, and implementing climate-resilient practices are among the measures that can help mitigate the impacts of climate change.